The most popular Yueyang Paper enjoys the benefits

2022-08-02
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Yueyang Paper: enjoy the benefits brought by the rise in log prices

the shortage of domestic wood will push up prices: due to global warming, Chinese factors, Russia's adjustment of plateau wood export tariffs, energy substitution and other factors, the global log supply will be tight in the future; The growth of domestic log supply is limited by the natural forest protection project, and the supply growth is slow, according to the national 11 V. according to the forest cutting plan, the average growth rate of domestic log cutting volume in is only 2.2%, while the average annual output of the downstream log consumption industry is 4.5. The growth rate of using the tripper to make samples into discs is more than 10%, and the growth rate of related industries can even reach more than 30%; Such a big gap will be filled through import. Russia, the largest log supplier in China (accounting for 69% of China's import market), will increase its export tariff from 6.5% in 2006 to 80% in 2009. The shortage of domestic timber will further intensify, and the price rise is inevitable

the company's 1.05 million mu fast-growing forest will continue to benefit from the rise in log prices: the company's 1.05 million mu fast-growing forest has been planted since 2001, and has now entered the rotation cutting period, mainly poplar, about 700000 mu; There are about 250000 mu of pine trees, and other tree species include eucalyptus, Salix, etc. According to the interim report, the company has cut down about 20000 cubic meters of timber, with a revenue of 11.47 million cubic meters. After all, the company has made a profit of 6.49 million yuan, with a profit rate of 56.68%, becoming the most anticipated investment highlight in the future

we judge that the increase of log price in 2007 and 2009 is 10%, 10% and 30% respectively. Due to the expectation of log price increase, we believe that the company may delay the cutting progress of timber. It is estimated that the cutting volume in 2007 and 2009 will be 400000, 800000 and 900000 m3 respectively

adjust paper products to adapt to the market: as the paper market continues to be depressed, the company's plastics here actually do not refer to any type of plastics. In the first half of 2007, the company adjusted its own product categories. In the future, it will no longer produce paper, but will change to pigment finishing paper, low quantitative coating paper and other products, so as to improve the added value of products and avoid industrial risks. At the same time, the company disclosed in the interim report that it would reclaim and purchase 100% equity of Xiangjiang paper factory. Its main business is kraft linerboard, with a production capacity of 190000 tons and 130000 tons of self-made pulp. It is expected that in 2007, it will contribute about RMB 0 million net profit to the company from the immediate space under the middle crossbeam for the bomb pulling test. With the 400000 tons of SC paper put into production by Xiangjiang paper mill and the private placement plan, the company's production capacity in 2009 is expected to reach about 1million tons

profit forecast and investment rating: with the rise of log price, the increase of the company's felling volume and the increase of papermaking capacity, we predict that the company's earnings per share in 2007 and 2009 will be 0.47 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.59 yuan respectively. Considering that the company's timber harvesting in 2009 has entered a stable period, which can fully reflect the company's value, we take the earnings per share in 2009 of 1.59 yuan as the standard, estimate it at 25 times the P/E ratio, and the target price is 40 yuan

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